Single Exponential Smoothing, SES luv luv, tseem hu ua Simple Exponential Smoothing, yog time series forecasting method rau cov ntaub ntawv univariate yam tsis muaj qhov sib txawv lossis caij nyoog. Nws yuav tsum muaj ib qho parameter, hu ua alpha (a), kuj hu ua qhov smoothing factor lossis smoothing coefficient.
Yuav ua li cas koj txheeb xyuas exponential smoothing?
Kev txhais cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb rau Ib Leeg Exponential Smoothing
- Kauj Ruam 1: Txiav txim siab seb tus qauv puas haum koj cov ntaub ntawv.
- Kauj Ruam 2: Sib piv qhov haum ntawm koj tus qauv rau lwm tus qauv.
- Kauj Ruam 3: Txiav txim seb qhov kev kwv yees puas yog.
Koj xaiv Alpha li cas rau kev nthuav tawm smoothing?
Peb xaiv tus nqi zoo tshaj rau \alpha yog li tus nqi uas ua rau MSE tsawg tshaj plaws. Cov lej ntawm qhov yuam kev squared (SSE)=208.94. Qhov nruab nrab ntawm qhov yuam kev squared (MSE) yog SSE / 11=19.0. MSE tau rov suav dua rau \alpha=0.5 thiab hloov mus ua 16.29, yog li qhov no peb xav tau qhov \alpha ntawm 0.5.
Thaum twg koj yuav siv exponential smoothing?
Exponential smoothing yog ib txoj hauv kev kom du cov ntaub ntawv rau kev nthuav qhia lossis ua kev kwv yees. Nws feem ntau yog siv rau nyiaj txiag thiab kev lag luam. Yog tias koj muaj lub sijhawm nrog tus qauv meej, koj tuaj yeem siv qhov nruab nrab txav - tab sis yog tias koj tsis muaj tus qauv meej koj tuaj yeem siv exponential smoothing rau kev kwv yees.
Koj suav li cas yooj yim exponential smoothing?
Kev suav suav suav suav suav suav suav suav suav suav nrog: Lub sijhawm tsis ntev los no qhov kev thov tau muab faib ua qhov sib npaug. Lub sij hawm tsis ntev los no qhov kev kwv yees sib npaug los ntawm (ib qho kev rho tawm qhov zoo tshaj plaws). S=qhov zoo tshaj plaws smoothing sawv cev rau hauv daim ntawv zauv teb (yog li 35% yuav sawv cev li 0.35).
